Philip Tetlock

About the Author

Philip Tetlock is a renowned psychologist and political scientist whose groundbreaking work explores the frontiers of human judgment, forecasting, and decision-making under uncertainty. A professor at the University of Pennsylvania, Tetlock has dedicated his career to dissecting how experts predict global events and the cognitive biases that often undermine their accuracy. Drawing from history, psychology, and behavioral economics, his research challenges conventional wisdom and offers practical insights for improving collective foresight. In his acclaimed book Unmaking the West: "What-If?" Scenarios That Rewrite World History, co-authored with Geoffrey Parker, Tetlock employs counterfactual analysis to reimagine pivotal moments in Western civilization, revealing the fragility of historical outcomes and the power of alternative paths. Tetlock's interdisciplinary approach continues to influence policymakers, scholars, and thinkers worldwide, emphasizing the value of probabilistic thinking in an unpredictable world.