Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises (RAND Studies in Policy Analysis)
Assumption-Based Planning provides a systematic framework for reducing avoidable surprises in policy and strategic planning. Authored by James A. Dewar, this RAND study guides users in pinpointing critical assumptions and developing responses to safeguard against uncertainties. It equips decision-makers with tools to build more resilient plans in dynamic contexts.
About This Book
Assumption-Based Planning is a methodology designed to help organizations anticipate and mitigate potential disruptions by focusing on underlying assumptions in planning processes.
Developed as part of RAND Studies in Policy Analysis, this tool emphasizes the identification of load-bearing assumptions that, if invalidated, could lead to significant planning failures.
By regularly reviewing and hedging against these assumptions, planners can create more robust strategies that adapt to changing environments.
The approach is particularly useful in complex, uncertain domains where traditional forecasting falls short.
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